Twin Cities Housing Market: Prices Are Up, But Sellers Are Making More Deals

September 2026 Market Report | What buyers and sellers should know

More homes are available. Buyers are taking their time. And sellers are working harder to get offers.

If you follow the housing market headlines, you might think home prices are still climbing and sellers are doing fine.

But if you're trying to sell a home in the Twin Cities right now, you may be seeing... and feeling... a different story.

The September numbers show a market that is changing. Prices are slightly higher than last year, but homes are taking longer to sell. Buyers have more choices, and many sellers are offering price cuts or other incentives to attract attention.

Let's look at what the numbers really mean.

More Homes for Sale, But Fewer Sales

According to September 2026 data from NorthstarMLS, the 16-county Twin Cities region reported:

Source: NorthstarMLS Local Market Update, September 2026, published October 12.

Here's what stands out.

There are more homes for buyers to choose from, but fewer sales are closing than a year ago. Homes are also spending more time on the market. One number deserves extra attention: Pending sales dropped 11.7% compared with last September. These are homes that buyers have agreed to purchase but have not closed on yet. That drop may be an early sign of slower sales ahead.

This doesn't mean homes aren't selling. It means sellers need to pay closer attention to pricing, condition, and competition. As the days get shorter, buyers may even notice things they missed during a daytime showing. Here are some simple lighting improvements and things to check around your home after dark."

What the Statistics Don't Show: Sellers Are Offering More Incentives

I see something else happening in the Twin Cities that doesn't fully appear in these monthly reports.

My email inbox is full of messages from listing agents announcing price reductions and seller incentives.

Three years ago, I rarely received these types of marketing emails. Today, I receive multiple messages each day.

Some advertise reduced prices. Others offer help with a buyer's closing costs, interest rate buydowns, or other financial incentives. Other messages are Reverse Prospecting messages; a sales activity that many agents who've been in business less than a decade have ever had to do.

These emails are my firsthand observation, not a formal market survey. But they show how some sellers and their agents are responding to today's challenges.

And there is data to support the broader trend.

According to Realtor.com's September report, nearly 23% of Minneapolis–St. Paul listings had a price reduction, up about four percentage points from the previous year.

That's a meaningful change.

There is another important detail: The reported sale price doesn't always tell us how much the seller actually received.

Imagine a home sells for $400,000, but the seller agrees to contribute $10,000 toward the buyer's closing costs.

The recorded sale price is still $400,000.

But the seller has given up $10,000 in proceeds that hits the bottom line.

That difference matters.

Market reports commonly track the sale price compared with the asking price, but they do not always show the financial impact of seller-paid incentives. When evaluating the market, we need to look beyond the headline numbers.

Mortgage Rates Are Still a Major Problem

Buyers may have more choices, but that doesn't mean they can afford more.

According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed from 6.71% on September 3 to 7.03% on September 24.

By October 15, it had reached 7.40%.

Higher rates increase monthly payments. A buyer who qualified for a certain price earlier this year may now need a lower-priced home or help with financing costs. That's one reason some sellers are offering closing-cost assistance or interest rate buydowns. For qualified buyers, these incentives may help make the monthly payment more manageable.

However, each incentive has a cost to the seller, and buyers should review the terms with their lender.

Interest rates are only part of the picture. See how paying cash versus financing a home can affect your buying power and long-term plans.

Not Every Twin Cities Community Is Experiencing the Same Market

This is especially important for homeowners in the northern and eastern suburbs.

September's local numbers show some major differences:

• Lino Lakes: The median sale price was $467,500, down 2% from last year. Available homes increased 19.4%.

• Shoreview: The median sale price was $447,500, up 14.7%. Available homes increased 18.8%.

• White Bear Lake: The median sale price was $347,500, down 8.5%. Available homes decreased 20.3%.

These figures do not mean every home in Lino Lakes lost value or every home in Shoreview gained nearly 15%.

Smaller communities have fewer sales, so the types of homes that sell can change the median quite a bit. That is why local comparisons matter so much. A well-maintained rambler, a waterfront home, and a townhome with association dues may face very different competition, even within the same city.

Your home's value depends on the homes buyers are comparing it with today, not simply the average price change across the metro.

Before spending money on repairs or remodeling, see my three home updates that can add value before selling in the Twin Cities.

What This Means If You're Selling

The days of putting a home on the market at an ambitious price and expecting buyers to compete for it are not the norm in every neighborhood.

Buyers have more choices. Many are watching their budgets closely. They're also paying attention to condition and the cost of repairs or deferred maintenance. 

That makes the work done before listing more important.

A strong selling strategy should answer several questions:

• What are buyers willing to pay for similar homes right now?

• Which improvements are worth making before listing?

• What competing homes are offering price reductions or incentives?

• How long are comparable homes taking to sell?

• Would a price adjustment or closing-cost credit make more financial sense?

• How will your sale fit into the timing of your next move?

The highest suggested asking price is not always the best selling strategy.

The goal is to attract qualified buyers, negotiate favorable terms, protect your net proceeds, and help you move on your timeline.

Wondering why some properties attract buyers quickly while others sit? Read my guide to why some Twin Cities homes sell in days while others stay on the market.

What This Means If You're Buying

There may be some good opportunities for buyers who have been waiting.

With more homes available, you may have time to compare properties, complete inspections, and negotiate terms.

Some sellers may be open to paying part of your closing costs or helping reduce your interest rate.

But don't assume every home is overpriced or every seller is desperate.

Well-priced homes in desirable locations can still attract strong interest. Homes in areas where there are 25 homes for sale and only 20 buyers looking this month means supply is outpacing demand and those homes may be priced in line with recent sales but it could take them a few months to sell while they wait for more buyers to enter the market. 

Before making an offer, work with your lender to understand your full monthly payment, including taxes, insurance, and association dues.

Then look at the home's condition, competing properties, and how long it has been listed. If all the homes in the area are sitting, we have "more supply than demand" problem. If similar homes are selling and some for a lower price, then the seller is possibly overpriced for their condition or the current market. 

The best opportunity isn't always the home with the biggest price reduction. It's the home that makes financial and lifestyle sense for you.

Already own a home? Your next move involves another big decision: Should you buy your next home before selling your current one?

The Bottom Line: The Market Is Changing, Not Stopping

The Twin Cities housing market is giving buyers more choices and asking sellers to be more realistic. Prices are not falling everywhere. Homes are still selling. And there are opportunities on both sides. But today's market requires more planning than the fast-moving market many homeowners remember from a few years ago.

If you're considering a move, don't rely on a national headline or an online home value estimate alone. Look at your local competition, your financial goals, your timing, and the full cost of the move.

Knowing what your home might sell for is one thing. Knowing how to get through the move successfully is another.

I'm Sarah Marrinan, REALTOR® and Lifestyle Real Estate Advisor. I help Twin Cities buyers and sellers make informed decisions with clear communication, strategic advice, and a plan built around their goals.

Thinking about moving in the next year? You don't need to have everything figured out. Let's talk about your home's market position, your timing, and the smartest path to your next move.

 Contact Sarah

Twin Cities MLS statistics cover the 16-county region unless otherwise noted. Local community reports may have smaller sample sizes. Sale prices and the percentage of original list price received do not account for seller concessions. Market data is based on published September 2026 reports available October 16, 2026. Figures cover different geographic areas and methods depending on the source. Sources: Minneapolis Area REALTORS® — Official Twin Cities Housing Market Data, NorthstarMLS / 10K Research — September 2026 Regional and Local Market Statistics, Realtor.com Research — September 2026 Housing Trends, Freddie Mac — Historical Mortgage Rates Local market conditions vary by property type, price range, and location. Seller incentive observations are based on the author's professional experience.